Sunday, September 30, 2012

Marathon Oil: Inside The Numbers

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Determining a company's financial health is a very important step in making a decision on whether or not to invest or to stay invested. There are many different ways to compute a company's financial health. In this test, I will be considering Marathon Oil Corporation's (MRO) profitability, debt and capital, and operating efficiency. Based on these criteria, we get to see sales, returns, margins, liabilities, assets, returns, and turnovers.

Note: All numbers sourced from the company website.

Profitability

Profitability is a class of financial metrics that are used to assess a business's ability to generate earnings, compared with expenses and other relevant costs incurred during a specific period of time.

In this section, we will look at four tests of profitability. They are: Net Income, Operating Cash Flow, Return on Assets, and Quality of Earnings. From these four metrics, we will establish if the company is making money, and gauge the quality of the reported profits.

  1. Net Income 2011 = $2.946 billion

To pass, the company needs to have a positive net income. Marathon Oil passes.

  1. Operating Cash Flow 2011 = $4.813 billion

Operating Cash Flow is the cash generated from the operations of a company, generally defined as revenue less all operating expenses, but calculated through a series of adjustments to net income.

To pass, the company needs to have a positive operating cash flow. Marathon Oil passes.

  1. ROA - Return On Assets

ROA is an indicator of how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. ROA gives an idea as to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. Calculated by dividing a company's net income by its total assets, ROA is displayed as a percentage. Sometimes this is referred to as "return on investment."

  • ROA in 2010 = 5.13%

  • ROA in 2011 = 9.39%

  • Net income growth, 2010 = $2.568 billion to 2011 = $2.946 billion, a increase of 14.72%

  • Total Asset growth, 2010 = $50.014 billion to 2011 = $31.371 billion, an decrease of 37.28%

In 2010-11, Marathon Oil's ROA increased from 5.13% to 9.39%. As the ROA increased, Marathon Oil passes.

  1. Quality of Earnings

Quality of Earnings is the amount of earnings attributable to higher sales or lower costs rather than artificial profits created by accounting anomalies such as inflation of inventory.

To pass, the operating cash flow must exceed the net income. Marathon Oil passes, as operating cash flow exceeds net income.

Debt and Capital

The Debt and Capital section establishes if the company is sinking into debt or digging its way out. It will also determine if the company is growing organically or raising cash by selling off stock.

  1. Total Liabilities to Total Assets, or TL/A ratio

TL/A ratio is a metric used to measure a company's financial risk by determining how much of the company's assets have been financed by debt.

  • Total Assets - 2010 = $50.014 billion

  • Total Assets - 2011 = $31.371 billion

  • Equals an decrease of 37.28%

  • Total Liabilities 2010 = $26.243 billion

  • Total liabilities 2011 = $14.219 billion

  • Equals an decrease of 45.81%

Marathon Oil's decrease in total assets was less the percentage decrease of total liabilities. Total assets decreased by 37.28%, while the total liabilities decreased by 45.81%. As the total liabilities decreased more than the total assets, Marathon Oil passes.

  1. Working Capital

Working Capital is a general and quick measure of liquidity of a firm. It represents the margin of safety or cushion available to the creditors. It is an index of the firm's financial stability. It is also an index of technical solvency and an index of the strength of working capital.

Marathon Oil's current ratio dropped from 1.24 in 2010 to 0.73 in 2011. As Marathon Oil's current ratio decreased, Marathon Oil does not pass.

  1. Shares Outstanding

To pass, the company's shares must increase less than by 2%. Marathon Oil's shares increased by 0.28%. Marathon Oil passes.

Operating Efficiency

Operating Efficiency is a market condition that exists when participants can execute transactions and receive services at a price that equates fairly to the actual costs required to provide them. An operationally efficient market allows investors to make transactions that move the market further toward the overall goal of prudent capital allocation without being chiseled down by excessive frictional costs, which would reduce the risk/reward profile of the transaction.

  1. Gross Margin: Gross Income/Sales

The gross profit margin is a measurement of a company's manufacturing and distribution efficiency during the production process. The gross profit tells an investor the percentage of revenue/sales left after subtracting the cost of goods sold. A company that boasts a higher gross profit margin than its competitors and industry is more efficient. Investors tend to pay more for businesses that have higher efficiency ratings than their competitors, as these businesses should be able to make a decent profit as long as overhead costs are controlled (overhead refers to rent, utilities, etc.).

  • Gross Margin 2010 = $4.786 billion/ $12.873 billion = 31.18%
  • Gross Margin 2011 = $6.225 billion/ $15.282 billion = 40.73%

The gross margin increased from 31.18% in 2010 to 40.73% in 2011. As the gross margin increased, Marathon Oil passes.

  1. Asset Turnover

The formula for the asset turnover ratio evaluates how well a company is utilizing its assets to produce revenue.

The numerator of the asset turnover ratio formula shows revenues found on a company's income statement and the denominator shows total assets, which is found on a company's balance sheet. Total assets should be averaged over the period of time that is being evaluated.

  • Sales growth - 2010 sales = $12.873 billion

  • Sales growth - 2011 sales = $15.282 billion

  • 18.71% sales increase

  • Total Assets - 2010 = $50.014 billion

  • Total Assets - 2011 = $31.371 billion

  • Equals an decrease of 37.28%

As the sales growth exceeded the asset growth, this implies that the company is producing revenue on its assets. Marathon Oil passes.

Based on the nine tests that Marathon Oil received on profitability, debt and capital, and operating efficiency, the company achieved eight passes, out of nine - this is an excellent grade for financial health. Marathon Oil did not pass the working capital aspect of the test. As the company did not pass the working capital aspect of the test this implies that the company did not have as much liquidity as it did a year ago. This is one aspect of the company to watch moving forward. Overall, the company is showing excellent results regarding financial health.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/895771-marathon-oil-inside-the-numbers?source=feed

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